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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 51, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP