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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 58

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to BAL 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model