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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 3

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP