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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:36) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model