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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 3-M.Bryant 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model