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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 40

Houston Texans 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 8-T.Daniel punts 29 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP