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Cleveland Browns

HC Gregg Williams
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CLE
35.6%
HOU
64.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21
–
HOU 26
Projected margin: HOU by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CLE

Austin Corbett T Out Foot
Damarious Randall S Questionable Hamstring
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Ankle

HOU

Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
J.J. Watt DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 13
–
HOU 29

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:15 FG HOU (8:15) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. Penalty on CLE-26-D.Kindred, Running Into the Kicker, declined. CLE 0 – HOU 3
  • Q1 00:44 TD HOU (:44) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 83-J.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – HOU 9
  • Q2 07:36 TD HOU (7:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham pushed ob at CLE 1 for 37 yards (6-B.Mayfield). Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 41-Z.Cunningham at CLE 38. 41-Z.Cunningham for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-78-G.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined. CLE 0 – HOU 16
  • Q2 03:24 FG HOU (3:24) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. CLE 0 – HOU 20
  • Q2 00:05 FG HOU (:05) 7-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. CLE 0 – HOU 23
  • Q3 09:42 TD CLE (9:42) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – HOU 23
  • Q3 05:31 FG HOU (5:31) 7-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. CLE 7 – HOU 26
  • Q4 05:50 FG HOU (5:50) 7-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. CLE 7 – HOU 29
  • Q4 03:05 TD CLE (3:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 81-R.Higgins for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – HOU 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (8:15) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. Penalty on CLE-26-D.Kindred, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-D.Carter to CLE 24 for 48 yards (54-T.Vallejo). FUMBLES (54-T.Vallejo), recovered by HOU-38-G.Howell at CLE 11. 38-G.Howell to CLE 4 for 7 yards (33-P.Gaines). PENALTY on HOU-23-J.Bademosi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 28.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 30%

    (13:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 56%

    (9:10) 8-T.Daniel punts 29 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 87%

    (3:24) 7-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 78%

    (:05) 7-K.Fairbairn 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 68%

    (5:31) 7-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 17 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:27) 8-T.Daniel punts 52 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-38-G.Howell.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 66%

    (9:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 85-D.Njoku (32-T.Mathieu).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%

    (5:50) 7-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 59%

    (1:53) 8-T.Daniel punts 33 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 59%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 18-D.Ratley pushed ob at HOU 37 for 2 yards (22-A.Colvin).