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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 35

Houston Texans 23 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 7-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.98 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP