Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-D.Carter to CLE 24 for 48 yards (54-T.Vallejo). FUMBLES (54-T.Vallejo), recovered by HOU-38-G.Howell at CLE 11. 38-G.Howell to CLE 4 for 7 yards (33-P.Gaines). PENALTY on HOU-23-J.Bademosi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.48 EP
56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model