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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.87 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model