4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 17

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:16) 4-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.84 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model