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Denver Broncos

6-6 HC Vance Joseph
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Cincinnati Bengals

5-7 HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 13:00 ET Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DEN
59.2%
CIN
40.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CIN defense: +0.189 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.002 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Case Keenum (DEN): -0.046 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: +0.019 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DEN 24 17–31
–
CIN 21 14–28
Projected margin: DEN by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 13

DEN

Shaquil Barrett LB Out Hip
Tramaine Brock CB Out Ribs
Brandon Marshall LB Questionable Knee

CIN

Josh Malone WR Out Hamstring
Tony McRae CB Out Concussion
Cordy Glenn T Doubtful Back

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 24
–
CIN 10

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 02:00 TD DEN (2:00) 30-P.Lindsay right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 00:16 FG CIN (:16) 4-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. DEN 7 – CIN 3
  • Q3 11:32 TD DEN (11:32) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – CIN 3
  • Q3 07:45 TD DEN (7:45) 30-P.Lindsay left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – CIN 3
  • Q3 02:53 TD CIN (2:53) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 16-C.Core for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [21-S.Cravens]. DEN 21 – CIN 9
  • Q4 00:27 FG DEN (:27) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. DEN 24 – CIN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 39%

    (10:42) 3-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to CIN 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 23%

    (4:21) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 19 for 1 yard (12-A.Erickson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:23) 3-C.Wadman punts 58 yards to CIN 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 32 for 14 yards (32-A.Janovich). PENALTY on CIN-20-K.Russell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 22. {Erickson credited with 4 return yards due to the penalty}

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:34) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:52) 3-C.Wadman punts 57 yards to CIN 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:10) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to DEN 38, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 68%

    (7:27) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (:16) 4-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:53) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 35 for 10 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). PENALTY on DEN-43-J.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 28. {Cracraft credited with 3 yard return due to the penalty}

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:18) 3-C.Wadman punts 43 yards to CIN 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-35-D.Thomas at CIN 33. 35-D.Thomas to CIN 33 for no gain (12-A.Erickson). Penalty on CIN-88-J.Franks, Offensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 18 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 29%

    (12:00) 10-K.Huber punts 21 yards to DEN 26, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 14 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 25%

    (9:28) 3-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to CIN 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:41) 10-K.Huber punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 52%

    (3:21) 3-C.Wadman punts 23 yards to CIN 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (:27) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

    See the full breakdown →