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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 35 for 10 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). PENALTY on DEN-43-J.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 28. {Cracraft credited with 3 yard return due to the penalty}

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 40, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model