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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 11

Denver Broncos 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:27) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.51 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model