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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 10-K.Huber punts 32 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 19 for 1 yard (12-A.Erickson).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.77 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model