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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 3-C.Wadman punts 58 yards to CIN 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 32 for 14 yards (32-A.Janovich). PENALTY on CIN-20-K.Russell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 22. {Erickson credited with 4 return yards due to the penalty}

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.03 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model