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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 70

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model