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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

IND
67.9%
JAX
32.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Andrew Luck (IND): +0.176 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 25
–
JAX 18
Projected margin: IND by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

IND

Mo Alie-Cox TE Out Calf
Ryan Kelly C Out Knee
Michael Mitchell S Questionable Calf
Chester Rogers WR Questionable Groin
Darius Leonard LB Questionable Shoulder
Marlon Mack RB Questionable Concussion
Kemoko Turay DE Questionable Hip
Erik Swoope TE Questionable Knee

JAX

D.J. Chark WR Out Quadricep
Cody Davis S Questionable Hamstring
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Ankle
Tre Herndon CB Questionable Ankle
Lerentee McCray DE Questionable Hamstring
Quenton Meeks CB Questionable Knee
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Knee
Josh Walker T Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 0
–
JAX 6

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 37 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 02:13 FG JAX (2:13) 4-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 0 – JAX 3
  • Q4 11:45 FG JAX (11:45) 4-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 0 – JAX 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (10:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to IND 8, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on JAX-38-C.Reavis, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at IND 8.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 18%

    (6:57) 2-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 29 yards to IND 37, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (12:32) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 20-J.Wilkins to JAX 1 for no gain (91-Y.Ngakoue).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to JAX 40, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 70%

    (8:59) 85-E.Ebron right end to JAX 32 for -1 yards (50-Tel.Smith, 44-M.Jack). FUMBLES (50-Tel.Smith), RECOVERED by JAX-44-M.Jack at JAX 40. 44-M.Jack to JAX 40 for no gain (45-R.Hewitt).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (2:13) 4-J.Lambo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:22) 2-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:21) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to IND 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-C.Rogers to IND 21 for 4 yards (22-C.Davis; 45-M.Overton).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:39) 2-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to IND 25, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:41) 2-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to JAX 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-R.Greene to JAX 32 for 8 yards (28-C.Milton).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 90%

    (11:45) 4-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:01) 2-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:06) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to IND 18, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-C.Rogers to IND 27 for 9 yards (38-C.Reavis).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 90%

    (2:38) 12-A.Luck sacked at JAX 28 for -9 yards (36-R.Harrison). Penalty on IND-64-M.Glowinski, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 15, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.