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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to IND 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 80-C.Rogers to IND 21 for 4 yards (22-C.Davis; 45-M.Overton).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model