Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(6:39) 2-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.88 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model