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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 12-A.Luck sacked at JAX 28 for -9 yards (36-R.Harrison). Penalty on IND-64-M.Glowinski, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.08 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model