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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to IND 15, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.53 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP