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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 2-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.12 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -2.19 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP