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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.55 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model