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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 16:05 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread -14.0 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

KC
78.9%
OAK
21.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.212 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Derek Carr (LV) -0.020 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.374 EPA/dropback
  • LV offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • KC on 6 more days rest than LV

Predicted Final Score

KC 30
–
OAK 20
Projected margin: KC by 10 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

KC

Sammy Watkins WR Out Foot
Eric Berry S Questionable Heel

OAK

Leon Hall CB Out Back
Martavis Bryant WR Questionable Knee
Maurice Hurst DT Questionable Ankle
Arden Key DE Questionable Knee
Daryl Worley CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 40
–
OAK 33

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:16 TD KC (12:16) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – OAK 0
  • Q1 07:45 FG KC (7:45) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 10 – OAK 0
  • Q2 07:07 FG KC (7:07) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 13 – OAK 0
  • Q2 01:07 TD LV (1:07) 97-C.McDonald and 76-J.Feliciano reported in as eligible. 28-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – OAK 6
  • Q2 00:12 TD KC (:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – OAK 7
  • Q3 11:10 FG LV (11:10) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. KC 19 – OAK 10
  • Q3 05:52 TD KC (5:52) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 32-S.Ware. 32-S.Ware up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 25 – OAK 10
  • Q3 03:33 TD LV (3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 87-J.Cook for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – OAK 16
  • Q3 00:09 TD KC (:09) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 84-D.Harris for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 32 – OAK 16
  • Q4 10:45 TD LV (10:45) 76-J.Feliciano and 97-C.McDonald reported in as eligible. 4-D.Carr pass short right to 86-L.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [50-J.Houston]. Penalty on KC-38-R.Parker, Defensive Holding, declined. KC 33 – OAK 22
  • Q4 06:49 TD LV (6:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-M.Ateman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 33 – OAK 29
  • Q4 01:57 TD KC (1:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-C.Conley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 39 – OAK 30
  • Q4 00:34 FG LV (:34) 8-D.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. KC 40 – OAK 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:09) 5-J.Townsend punts 22 yards to KC 35, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 96%

    (7:45) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 21%

    (3:57) 5-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to KC 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to LV 38, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-84-D.Harris.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 72%

    (7:07) 7-H.Butker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 72%

    (11:10) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 99%

    (5:52) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 32-S.Ware. 32-S.Ware up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LV 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:25) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to LV 46, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.