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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 26 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LV 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model