4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 91

Kansas City Chiefs 33 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to LV 46, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 91, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.63 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model