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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 53

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 5-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to KC 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.52 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model