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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 10

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 10, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model