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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -10.5 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

LA
67.8%
DET
32.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.238 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.171 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): +0.276 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA on 3 more days rest than DET

Predicted Final Score

LA 29
–
DET 23
Projected margin: LA by 6 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LA

No players on the report.

DET

Nick Bellore RB Out Ankle
Kerryon Johnson RB Out Knee
Brandon Powell WR Out Calf
Michael Roberts TE Doubtful Shoulder
Trevor Bates LB Questionable Ankle
Bruce Ellington WR Questionable Back
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 30
–
DET 16

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:20 FG LA (3:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – DET 0
  • Q2 12:26 FG DET (12:26) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. LA 3 – DET 3
  • Q2 02:33 TD LA (2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – DET 3
  • Q2 00:48 FG LA (:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 13 – DET 3
  • Q3 08:01 FG DET (8:01) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. LA 13 – DET 6
  • Q3 05:51 FG LA (5:51) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 16 – DET 6
  • Q3 03:08 TD DET (3:08) 68-T.Decker reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 68-T.Decker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – DET 12
  • Q4 06:58 TD LA (6:58) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 22 – DET 13
  • Q4 02:57 FG DET (2:57) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. LA 23 – DET 16
  • Q4 02:00 TD LA (2:00) 30-T.Gurley right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 29 – DET 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 39%

    (12:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to DET 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-36-D.Hatfield. LA-37-S.Shields was injured during the play.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (8:08) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to LA 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Natson to LA 30 for 2 yards (26-D.Shead). PENALTY on LA-37-S.Shields, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 30.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (3:20) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (12:26) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:45) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to LA 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:46) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to LA 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Natson to LA 32 for 8 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 80%

    (:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:20) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to LA 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-47-T.Walker.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:15) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to LA 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Natson to LA 26 for 8 yards (47-T.Walker).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (8:01) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 78%

    (5:51) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:22) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to LA 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-57-E.Harold.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to DET 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (2:57) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.