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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to DET 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-36-D.Hatfield. LA-37-S.Shields was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -3.12 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP