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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 72

Detroit Lions 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to LA 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Natson to LA 26 for 8 yards (47-T.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model