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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.22 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP