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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 54

Detroit Lions 13 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to LA 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-57-E.Harold.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.86 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 54, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model