Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 84

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Detroit Lions 13

(9:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to DET 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.14 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 84, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model