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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 16

New York Jets 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.31 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model