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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 16:05 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NYJ
31.8%
TEN
68.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Josh McCown (NYJ): -0.018 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18
–
TEN 24
Projected margin: TEN by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NYJ

Marcus Maye S Out Shoulder
Robby Anderson WR Questionable Ankle
Sam Darnold QB Questionable Foot

TEN

Dane Cruikshank S Out Knee
David Fluellen RB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 22
–
TEN 26

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:40 FG NYJ (9:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – TEN 0
  • Q1 08:09 TD NYJ (8:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 17-C.Batson INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Johnson [96-H.Anderson] at TEN 31. 22-T.Johnson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – TEN 0
  • Q2 11:45 FG NYJ (11:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 13 – TEN 0
  • Q2 02:56 FG NYJ (2:56) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 16 – TEN 0
  • Q2 01:03 TD TEN (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 86-A.Firkser for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – TEN 6
  • Q3 10:43 FG NYJ (10:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 19 – TEN 6
  • Q3 07:49 TD TEN (7:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 19 – TEN 12
  • Q3 00:31 FG NYJ (:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 22 – TEN 13
  • Q4 09:33 FG TEN (9:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. NYJ 22 – TEN 16
  • Q4 05:44 FG TEN (5:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. NYJ 22 – TEN 19
  • Q4 00:42 TD TEN (:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 22 – TEN 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:27) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to NYJ 35, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 4 yards (28-K.Lewis).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%

    (9:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to NYJ 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (11:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 22%

    (8:30) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:26) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to TEN 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-40-T.Cannon.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 20 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:11) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punt is BLOCKED by 56-K.Pierre-Louis, Center-48-B.Brinkley, RECOVERED by NYJ-56-K.Pierre-Louis at TEN 18. 56-K.Pierre-Louis to TEN 18 for no gain (31-K.Byard).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 82%

    (2:56) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 46%

    (13:57) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:13) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NYJ 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 88%

    (10:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 22%

    (14:46) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NYJ 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:46) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to TEN 46, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-53-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 46.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (9:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:30) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to TEN 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (5:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:02) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:21) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NYJ 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:54) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to TEN 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.