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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(8:30) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.11 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model