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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 72

New York Jets 13 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:26) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to TEN 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-40-T.Cannon.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP