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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to NYJ 35, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 4 yards (28-K.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model