Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(5:11) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punt is BLOCKED by 56-K.Pierre-Louis, Center-48-B.Brinkley, RECOVERED by NYJ-56-K.Pierre-Louis at TEN 18. 56-K.Pierre-Louis to TEN 18 for no gain (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.67 EP
75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model