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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 13 – New York Jets 22

What Actually Happened

(14:46) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NYJ 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.97 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model