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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 88

New York Jets 22 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(13:46) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to TEN 46, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-53-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 46.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 88, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model