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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 16 – New York Jets 22

What Actually Happened

(5:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model