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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Jets 22 – Tennessee Titans 19

What Actually Happened

(4:02) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.08 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model