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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 60

New York Jets 22 – Tennessee Titans 19

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to TEN 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -2.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model