Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 10

(3:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to NYJ 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.61 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model