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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 90

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to PHI 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to WAS 40 for 14 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.23 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 90, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP