4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Monday 2018-12-03 · 20:15 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 💨 Windy Spread 5.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

WAS
38.0%
PHI
62.0%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Colt McCoy (WAS): -0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • WAS on 3 more days rest than PHI

Predicted Final Score

WAS 19
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

WAS

Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Shin
Trey Quinn WR Questionable Ankle
Zach Brown LB Questionable Knee
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Ankle
Matt Ioannidis DE Questionable Shin
Morgan Moses T Questionable Knee
Adrian Peterson RB Questionable Shoulder
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Back

PHI

Jordan Hicks LB Out Calf
Avonte Maddox CB Out Ankle
Jalen Mills CB Out Foot
Darren Sproles RB Questionable Hamstring
Josh Adams RB Questionable Hip
Michael Bennett DE Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 13
–
PHI 28

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:40 TD PHI (7:40) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 19-G.Tate for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 13:49 FG WAS (13:49) 3-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – PHI 7
  • Q2 09:36 TD WAS (9:36) 26-A.Peterson up the middle for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – PHI 7
  • Q2 01:54 TD PHI (1:54) (Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – PHI 13
  • Q2 00:19 FG WAS (:19) 3-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 13 – PHI 14
  • Q4 14:15 TD PHI (14:15) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 80-J.Matthews for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – PHI 20
  • Q4 11:45 FG PHI (11:45) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. WAS 13 – PHI 25
  • Q4 04:52 FG PHI (4:52) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. WAS 13 – PHI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:24) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to PHI 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 16 for 4 yards (41-D.Johnson; 16-J.Chesson).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:57) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to WAS 28, Center-45-R.Lovato. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 29 for 1 yard (36-D.Hall).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 20 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 80%

    (13:49) 3-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 17 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 16%

    (9:43) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to WAS 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-M.Harris.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (4:08) 33-J.Adams up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (53-Z.Brown).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (2:33) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to PHI 46, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to WAS 40 for 14 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 74%

    (:19) 3-D.Hopkins 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:28) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 22%

    (4:57) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to PHI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 76%

    (11:45) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:11) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 27 for 1 yard (35-M.Nicholson).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 80%

    (4:52) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.