Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 76

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(13:28) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model